Town 'n' Country, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXUS62 KTBW 020043
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
743 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold conditions are forecast again tonight into
  Monday morning.

- Dangerous marine conditions are ongoing with a high risk of
  strong rip currents and hazardous surf at area beaches through
  tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Canadian high pressure responsible for the record cold conditions
and flurry of wintry weather experienced across parts of the area
over the past 24 hours continues to slowly drift across the Deep
South toward the state. Winds have gradually trended down into
this evening in response, allowing cold air advection into the
peninsula to diminish, however with much lighter winds and clear
skies tonight, strong radiational cooling will allow temps to
again drop into the 20s for most areas away from the coast, and
30s for remaining areas, with much higher frost potential given
the calmer conditions. Resulting feels like temps will run about
5 degrees or so cooler than air temps given the lighter winds, and
a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of our counties
along with a Freeze Warning for all counties except Pinellas
where temps approaching freezing are expected to be limited in
duration and coverage.

Seven climate sites across the area set or tied daily record low
and/or record low maximum temps today, three of which (TBW, PGD,
GIF) were also monthly record low maximum temps. GIF proved to be
perhaps the most noteworthy of the record setters, breaking its
daily record low and low maximum temps by 10 and 13 degrees,
respectively.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Canadian high pressure and an associated arctic airmass is
currently over the region with a decreasing area of cold air
strato-cu over the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient across the
region will weaken allowing winds to decrease significantly down
tonight with clear skies setting up favorable conditions for
strong radiational cooling across west central and southwest
Florida after sunset. So, all cold weather hazard products start
at 7pm for anyone participating in any outdoor activities this
evening.

A freeze warning and cold weather advisory is in effect for all
of west central and southwest Florida with the exception of
Pinellas county starting at 7pm. Low temperatures again will drop
into the lower 20s north...the mid to upper 20s central, and
around 30 in the coastal zones south of Tampa. Winds will be
relatively light creating wind chills about 3 to 5 degrees below
the ambient temperature. This will bring wind chills over the
interior very close to extreme cold warning criteria as they will
be in the 21 to 23 range...with warning criteria being 20 or less.

- A cold weather advisory is in effect for all of west central and
  southwest Florida tonight. A Freeze Warning is also in effect
  for all counties with the exception of Pinellas county.
  Widespread frost will be possible, across inland areas and wind
  protected coastal areas which is covered in the cold weather
  products.

- Temperatures will be running about 20 to 25 degrees below
  climatic normals through tonight and may approach record low
  temperatures tonight/Monday morning.

- Along area beaches, very strong rip currents and high surf are
  expected to persist through today.

The airmass will begin to modify a bit on Monday, but it will still
be another cold day across the region with high temperatures from
the mid 50s north to around 60 south. Subfreezing temperatures again
will be likely Monday night/Tuesday morning across the N Nature
Coast, with around freezing temperatures across the interior...and
upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast. Areas of frost will likely
develop late Monday night through the early Tuesday morning.

The area of high pressure will begin to shift east of the forecast
area during the middle of next week with temperatures continuing to
modify...but remaining below climatic normals under mostly clear
skies each day. A cold front will push across the forecast area late
Wednesday and Wednesday night which will bring the next chance of
showers, and possibly a thunderstorm to the area. Drier cooler air
will advect across the region in the wake of the front Thursday
night and Friday. Temperatures will drop back down to about 10
degrees below climatic normals, with the potential for freezing
temperatures across the nature coast Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR continuing through the period with gusty northerly winds
gradually diminishing to around 10 knots or less overnight and
holding through Monday under generally clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Dangerous marine conditions continue with strong gusty winds and
choppy elevated seas so small craft operators should remain in
port until conditions improve. The pressure gradient will start to
relax tonight with winds and seas slowly subsiding through early
week. The next cold front will move through the waters Wednesday
night into Thursday with a chance of showers before hazardous
marine conditions redevelop behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The cold and dry airmass will remain over the region to start the
work week with slight warming into mid week. Afternoon RHs will
drop below critical levels but winds will remain light. The next
cold front will move through the state Wednesday night into
Thursday with a chance of showers. Cooler and drier conditions to
build back over the region to end the week into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  34  56  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  33  60  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  29  57  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  34  57  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  24  55  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  41  57  47  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland
     Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Monday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis/Oglesby